All the geopolitical pundits have been talking about the latest admissions coming from the Neocon West. Alexander Mercouris mentioned this yesterday, and Larry Johnson and Simplicius the Thinker weigh in today—first LJ, then Simplicius at the links:
These are both very worthwhile articles—at typical lengths for each author. I’m not going to summarize them in detail because my main interest lies elsewhere. The titles of the articles LJ and Simplicius cite tell the story. Note that these are very big name Russia haters, most readily identifiable as US Neocons:
Putin has withstood the West’s best efforts to reverse his invasion of Ukraine, and his hold on power is firm. The U.S. and its allies need a new strategy: containment.
The common theme and common new strategy recommendations for the Ukrainian proxy in the war on Russia are pretty straightforward. LJ summarizes them from the Haass-Kupchan article, and they’re representative of all the other articles:
Kyiv should offer a cease-fire in place while pivoting from an offensive to a defensive strategy.
Ukraine should focus on holding and rebuilding the territory that it now controls, reversing the offense-defense equation and putting Russia in the position of having to bear the exorbitant costs of conducting offensive operations against well-dug-in Ukrainian forces and expanded air defenses.
Ukraine could continue using long-range weapons, naval assets, and covert operations to strike at Russian positions in rear areas and in Crimea, raising the costs of continuing occupation.
The United States and select NATO members (a friends of Ukraine coalition of the willing) should commit not just to long-term economic and military help but also to guaranteeing Ukraine’s independence.
You can see why LJ calls this “delusional nonsense.” It requires Russia’s cooperation against its own interests, and passive acquiescence in continued “lower intensity” warfare. The Russians, however, have made it amply clear that they have no intention of acquiescing in anything other than total victory on their own terms.
That being the case, what are we to take away from these delusional proposals? The common theme is that the Neocon desire to “defeat Russia once and for all” remains strong. This despite the fact that Putin has demolished each Neocon delusion in detail. Here is Doug Macgregor’s summary of those Neocon delusions:
1. The Russians will never invade Ukraine;
2. OK, they invaded, but they don’t know what they were doing, they’re in over their heads;
3. Further, the Russians are incompetent, inept, and will never recover from their alleged mistakes upfront; and finally,
4. The Russian economy is doomed. Russian society will collapse and revolt and remove Putin.
These articles demonstrate that, for all their desire to “defeat Russia once and for all,” the Neocons know at this point that Russia will not be defeated in Ukraine. However, I’m not yet persuaded that Doug Macgregor is correct in his view that the US is currently trying to persuade Zelensky to simply give in to Russian demands. What I would like to propose is that the Neocons really do want to keep the war in Ukraine going. Beyond the desire to avoid the humiliation of having to acknowledge Russia’s victory, the Neocons have other reasons for wishing to keep the war in Ukraine going. The primary reason, I would argue, is to keep Russia tied down in Ukraine while the Neocons pursue their war on Russia on other fronts. The difficulty is, with American focus turned to Palestine and Israel’s war on Gaza, it may prove difficult to impossible to get Congress to provide the funding that is needed to keep the war in Ukraine going at the level the Neocons believe is necessary. That, of course, is the reason for the insistence that Israel/Ukraine funding must be a package deal.
That also raises the question: Exactly where is that new front? M. K. Bhadrakumar has been insisting for some time now that the new front is a war on Iran—that that is the meaning of the huge display of American military might in the Middle East right now. My own view, which I’ve expressed repeatedly, is that the thinking behind the military display has been primarily to deter Hezbollah from getting involved in an effort to stop Israel’s now proclaim Nakba 2.0, or Gaza Nakba. I’m starting to come around to a version of MKB’s view.
Suppose that the US immediately rushed its vast armada to the Middle East with the idea of deterrence, as Macgregor believes. However, now suppose that the Neocons believe the war in Palestine presents an opportunity—as Netanyahu also believes—to settle accounts with Iran and its allies and to simultaneously drive the Russians out of the Middle East? It may not be a final victory over Russia, but it would be tangible progress—a major battle won in the long war.
As in Ukraine and the war on Russia, we may be seeing a divided Deep State—the professional military appears to be aware that the US is not prepared for a potentially vast war. In this MKB paragraph we see that tension between the two Deep State factions:
The hardline opinion in the US is that the militant groups attacking the US forces are acting at Iran’s behest. This allegation is an old US-Israeli bogey and keeps surging whenever Iran is in the crosshairs and/or there is requirement of a blame game. Expert opinion, including in the US, has always been wary of it.
The big question in all this is, How much of the argumentation we’re seeing is big picture geopolitics—surround and hem in Russia by breaking off its new found friends in the Middle East—and how much may be Zionist talking points to persuade the US to act as Israel’s proxy in the Middle East wars? MKB argues that the US is about to attack Yemen, supposedly an Iranian proxy, in an effort to separate Saudi Arabia from Iran—which the US has been desperately attempting to do for months, now. He cites a Neocon article (authored by Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth) at The Hill—Iran is calling Biden’s bluff—that is clearly intended to escalate war hysteria and add pressure for a direct US attack on Iran. They argue for the US to adopt the Israeli deterrence approach of massive attacks to administer a “bloody nose” to Israeli enemies.
A number of commenters have also been sending me links to articles that are pretty obvious Israeli propaganda pieces. These articles advance the claim that the rest of the Arab world is delighted to see Jews killing Arabs in Gaza on a wholesale basis. The obvious intent is to persuade the inner circle of the Zhou regime that the correct approach is to ignore the manifestations of outrage and trust the Israeli strategy for ethnic cleansing and a Greater Israel. An American attack on Iran is just what’s needed to calm the region and let Israel finish the job: Nakba 2.0. The surefire successful outcome of taking Israeli advice will be a famous victory in Election 2024. Cast your anxieties to the winds. A bit of “gunboat diplomacy” will recover the US position in the Middle East.
The concerns behind this PR offensive are clearly summarized by MKB:
The Biden Administration must be sensing already that the Israeli operations against Hamas are not getting anywhere and may turn into a long day’s journey into night, thanks to the Zionist state’s stubborn refusal to confront its guilt and shame or accept a two-state solution to the Palestine issue. The American public opinion is becoming skeptical about Biden’s handling for the situation and the US’ allies feel troubled. Indeed, Israel itself is a deeply divided house.
Meanwhile, the US’ diplomatic isolation in the Middle East is touching an unprecedented level today. The big question is whether through coercion — “smart power” — it is possible to retrieve lost ground where the crux of the matter is that the US is not trusted anymore in the Middle East. Moreover, Iran holds the patent for “smart power,” which it has finessed as a diplomatic tool through the past four decades successfully to ward off existential challenges from the US.
But just how effective can “smart power” in the service of Greater Israel really be? The isolation of the US means that those carrier battle groups don’t represent much concentrated power:
These objectives range from bringing down Iran by a notch or two in the regional folklore of power dynamic; driving a wedge between Saudi Arabia and Iran at a juncture when the amity between the two traditional rivals is frustrating the US plans to “integrate” Israel; res-establishing the shock and awe of US power in the Middle East (and globally); keeping the Red Sea shipping lines open for Israeli vessels; and, in strategic terms, dominating the waterways of the Red Sea leading to the Suez Canal.
By the way, Red Sea is lately witnessing big power contestation — China has a naval base in Djibouti and Russia hopes to establish a submarine base in Sudan; Eritrea is a virulently anti-US littoral state on Red Sea; and, US is desperately trying for a regime change in Ethiopia, the largest country in the African continent, which is on very friendly terms with Russia.
If any of the above is the story of the Neocon pivot, it’s off to a bad start. Key to any of this is bringing KSA back on side. But:
The Chinese foreign ministry announced on Sunday that a delegation consisting of Arab and Islamic foreign ministers will visit China from November 20 to 21 to hold “in-depth communication and coordination” with Beijing “on ways to deescalate the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli conflict, protect civilians and seek a just settlement of the Palestinian question.” …
The above development is a Saudi initiative. There is no question that the collective outreach by the Muslim countries to China as their principal interlocutor at the present stage of the Palestine-Israel conflict is a diplomatic rebuff to the US. Succinctly put, the Arab unity is also becoming a thorn in the flesh for President Biden at a time when the US finds it increasingly difficult to block the Chinese-Arab push for a ceasefire in Gaza and counter the international condemnation of Israel’s horrific violence against the Palestinian people, especially in the Global South.
This simply confirms that KSA has no intention of returning to the American orbit. And the news of today gets worse:
Tom Luongo (Head Sneetch) @TFL1728
And there it is... the Breaking of the Saudi Riyal's peg to the USD has begun.
Quote
Gold Telegraph @GoldTelegraph
BREAKING NEWS
CHINA AND SAUDI ARABIA HAVE SIGNED A LOCAL-CURRENCY SWAP AGREEMENT WORTH AROUND $7 BILLION, DEEPENING THEIR TIES AS NATIONS THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST AIM TO DIVERSIFY MORE OF THEIR NON-OIL TRADE AWAY FROM THE DOLLAR.
Major news.
The trend is accelerating.
10:53 AM · Nov 20, 2023
Janet Yellen’s claim that the Neocon run US can afford forever wars in unlimited numbers is looking more and more threadbare. The Zhou regime’s genius ploy of sending an Israeli citizen masquerading as an American diplomat to mediate with Netanyahu has surely given the entire game away.
I’ll finish this rather speculative piece with a plug for a stimulating exchange between Judge Nap and Doug Macgregor—an unabashed supporter of Israel.
Above, I quoted Macgregor’s views of the Neocon delusions with regard to Russia. Immediately after he enumerated those delusions, he added that the same delusions are operating with regard to Neocon/Israeli attitudes with regard to Arabs:
I think you have a similar phenomenon right now in Israel, in Jerusalem. I think the attitude is, 'We're surrounded by mediocrities, they can't organize themselves, they're not capable, we just have to stay the course and get this job done--and we need to get it done quick, because we understand that the support for us around the world will vanish. The longer this takes the more hazardous it is for us.' And they're betting very heavily on us--obviously. That we are their backstop and that our presence offshore and in the region with air and naval power will be enough to persuade the various actors in the region to do nothing. To stand by and watch the population of Gaza either killed or driven out of Gaza.
My impression is that the Neocons are flying by the seat of their pants.
Thanks for reading Meaning In History! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Reality is staring them in the face and they just simply refuse to acknowledge the fact.
They prattle on endlessly, oblivious to the fact that the rest of the world has moved on, and clinging to their deluded fantasy only makes them appear more foolish. This is Biden’s “A-Team”? Where’s Abbot and Costello when you need them?
What a fricking dumpster fire. Our only hope is that all of our foes will simply laugh themselves to death at this appalling public display of incompetence.
Another telltale sign:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dutch-central-bank-admits-it-has-prepared-new-gold-standard
These people remind me of Baghdad Bob.
Reality is staring them in the face and they just simply refuse to acknowledge the fact.
They prattle on endlessly, oblivious to the fact that the rest of the world has moved on, and clinging to their deluded fantasy only makes them appear more foolish. This is Biden’s “A-Team”? Where’s Abbot and Costello when you need them?
What a fricking dumpster fire. Our only hope is that all of our foes will simply laugh themselves to death at this appalling public display of incompetence.